Forum Issue

Visionary Question Results

So are people sceptical?

Do they believe that technological innovation proceeds at a much slower pace than it does in reality?

If you had a bright idea, which was technically feasible, would people believe you?

To help answer these, the visionary questionnaire posed questions about technological solutions that already exist, either as a production version or as a prototype. For the prototypes the developer's estimated production date was used. Except for three of the questions, all of these technological solutions already exist as production versions and about half of them have been in use for several years! Of the prototypes, the one that will take the longest to become a production version is the jet engine the size of a coat button: it will take just five years to reach production.

The results of the questionnaire are as follows:

Participants over-estimated by 18 years! (average of all participants).
Worst over-estimation: 54 years (average of all the answers from the most sceptical participant).
Worst over-estimation: 295 years! (for Jet Engine answer from the above participant).
Participants over-estimated by 15 years! (ignoring the Jet Engine question).

Of course, some participants guessed much better than that. The best participant, with the most accurate answers, was only two years out (as an average).

However, these (anonymous) participants are likely to have a significant interest in innovation because they include members of the innovation forum and/or visitors to its web site. So it may be reasonable to assume that an average member of the public would over-estimate by even more years!

This explains (part of the reason) why inventors and innovators have such a difficult time convincing others that they have a great idea - even if it actually does work! The average person may [wrongly] think hey buddy that sort of thing will not exist for at least another 20 years, or perhaps much longer!

Further, there is often a 10 year lag between the development of an R&D prototype and a production version in the marketplace. This means that there are technologies in existence now that the average person may not expect to exist for another 30 years!

Some of the "visionary" technologies in the questionnaire have existed for a decade or more, which means the over-estimates are even greater.

So are people sceptical? You bet!

Get your really visionary ideas and innovations here.

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